Bayesian Networks Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4750 words

Bayesian Networks - Essay Example BNs are graphical models that set probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. They depict the relationships between causes and effects. The BNs are strong knowledge representation and reasoning tool under conditions of uncertainty. The BNs are a directed acyclic graph having nodes and arcs with a conditional probability distribution linked for each node. Nodes stand for domain variables, and arcs between nodes stand for probabilistic dependencies. Set of nodes and a set of directed links between them must not form a cycle. Each node represents a random variable that can take discrete or continuous finite, mutually exclusive values. These values depend on a probability distribution, which can be different for each node. Each link states probabilistic cause-effect relations among the linked variables. A link is shown by an arc starting from the affecting variable (parent node) and ending on the affected variable (child node). We will use BNs to represent risk. For example, Figure 3.1 shows BN for "Decreased profits" risk. By linking together different risks we can model multiple risks in a project and we will look at this property in Chapter 5. Bayes' Theorem was developed after Rev. Thomas Bayes, an 18th century mathematician and theologian. Bayes set out his theory of probability in Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London in 1764. Richard Price, a friend of Bayes' sent the paper to the Royal Society and wrote: I now send you an essay which I have found among the papers of our deceased friend Mr Bayes, and which, in my opinion, has great merit... In an introduction which he has writ to this Essay, he says, that his design at first in thinking on the subject of it was, to find out a method by which we might judge concerning the probability that an event has to happen, in given circumstances, upon supposition that we know nothing concerning it but that, under the same circumstances, it has happened a certain number of times, and failed a certain other number of times. (Hogben 1970) Laplace accepted Bayes's results in a 1781 memoir and Condorcet rediscovered them (as Laplace mentions). They stayed accepted until Boole doubted them in the Laws of Thought . Mathematically Bayes theorem is stated as: Where it is possible to update our belief in hypothesis H given the additional evidence E. The left-hand term, P(H|E) is known as the "posterior probability," or the probability of H after considering the effect of E. The term P(H) is called the "prior probability" of H. The term P(E|H) is called the "likelihood" and gives the probability of the evidence assuming the hypothesis H is true. Finally, the last term P(E) is free of H and can be viewed as a normalizing or scaling factor. The power of Bayes' theorem is that in many situations where we actually want to calculate p(H|E) it turns out that it is hard to do so directly, yet we might have direct information about the likelihood, p(E|H). Bayes' theorem allows us to calculate p(H|E) in terms of p(E|H). 1.3 The Bayesian Approach to Probability and Statistics Understanding of the Bayesian method to probability and statistics helps to know BNs and related learning techniques. The

Medication errors Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Medication errors - Assignment Example I would recommend that the CEO focuses on ensuring a harmonious working relationship amongst the employees. She has to work hard to building trust within the organization, promote freedoms and allow all employees of the organization time to be heard through asking questions during meetings and providing their suggestions for the way forward. The CEO has to change the organizational culture and make the organization more flexible and ready to accept and accommodate new changes in personnel, technology.What should quality data be reported and utilized by this board of directors?The organization’s board of directors should utilize the quality performance measures to turn around the fortunes of the hospital. Once the health facility improves the quality of its performance, their customers or patients will certainly be satisfied with their work. Improving quality performance implies dealing with data on medication errors, hospital infections, and x-ray discrepancies among others in order improve on these figures.The minutes of the board’s meetings definitely do not reflect the discussions held in the meeting. This is because some members are not willing to put out their views during the meetings. The organization’s culture and tradition have for a long time undermined contribution from other members. Therefore, while the minutes of the Board minutes may represent the issues deliberated upon in the meetings, they do not definitely reflect the views of every member present at the meeting.

Training professionals have a leading role in innovation and change Essay

Training professionals have a leading role in innovation and change - Essay Example This has transformed and redefined the role of trainers from merely developing programs to holistic assistance and monitoring, as well as motivating the employees to share information and knowledge amid themselves. The essay discusses the roles and responsibilities of training professionals to bring about innovation in the present day’s business. The approach of the training professionals towards the design and delivery of the developmental programs for the training of the employee workforce, have also been discussed. The essay finally compares and contrasts the innovative training and development programs of two Australian organizations. The training professional plays a major role in the 21st century businesses. The significance of the responsibility in relation to the approach of training professionals can be understood from all the positive alterations that occur as a result of training and development programs in an organization. According to Vemic, the approach of traini ng professionals presently acts as the originator of new expertise and knowledge among the employees. Training professionals persuade creativity as well as inventiveness and form the skill base of the complete organization. The skill base and knowledge bestows the organizations with exclusive characteristics and distinguishes it from its peers (Vemic, â€Å"Employee Training and Development and the Learning Organization†). Based on the similar context, White & Bruton state that any organization has to realign itself and concentrate on new technologies, new procedures as well as new approaches of performing activities, in order to become innovative. However, no organization can accomplish innovativeness if its employees are not properly trained and possess cognitive skills and knowledge. Thus, the role of training professionals is crucial because they ensure the presence or availability of adequately trained human resources in the organization for its innovative ventures (Whit e & Bruton, â€Å"The Management of Technology and Innovation: A Strategic Approach†). Furthermore, Hargreaves & Jarvis stated that in today’s competitive world, innovation and change is a continuous as well as a rapid process. The tasks of training professionals vary depending on the type of innovation the organization is looking forward to. The training professional requires the support of higher management as well as external alignment in instances of radical change. Major reorganization of the company or their product line would require the training professional to develop multi skilled employees, since such kind of changes are strategic in nature and have a wide impact on the organization. On the other hand routine changes for the enhancement of the prevailing arrangement or service, necessitates the training professional to develop necessary skills and coordination amongst the involved team. The training professionals undertake a very complex role in the current scenario. They act as proactive agents of change for the development of innovative strategies in the organization. They also act as ‘providers’ contributing training to the employee workforce designed to enhance and maintain the performance of the company (Hargreaves & Jarvis, â€Å"

A Causal Relationship between Problem solving and Student Success Essay

A Causal Relationship between Problem solving and Student Success - Essay Example To be able to analyze the objectives of the project or the course of study and how to utilize the information that is available and that which is already stored in the brain or ask the right questions to obtain clarify and effectiveness. This approach reviews students on an individual basis and instruct methodically rather than one standardized format, which may not be applicable to all. The idea is to access individual student capabilities, weaknesses and fashion it based on their specific needs. These assessments are based on studies made on periodical assignments, IQ tests and skill tests through the course tenure, be it primary or secondary education level. The object of this article is to ascertain if there is a logical reasoning behind this kind of pedagogy and if there is evidence of results. The article is divided under the following: What are problem-solving skills? It is broadly inferred that â€Å"problems† when viewed from the academic point of view relates only directly to mathematics when solving equations; chemistry deducing the chemical compound or the reactive behavior of some chemical compound or to put in even a bit broader in science in general. This article looks at problem solving skill sets as what it is in today’s academic context and its application over the entire academic spectrum. To a human mind anything and everything that does not have an obvious solution is a problem and in the event of such problems it is necessary to take on a theoretical and methodical approach to it. The human mind is a humongous library of knowledge and information stored at different points of time in response to things seen, heard or read. All of this information has applications in our lives and can be found useful in finding a solution or trying to understand something better or learn something new yet connected. The purpose is to train the mind to think objectively exercise it to approach learning

Psychology Intelligence Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Psychology Intelligence - Essay Example His theory suggests that man's intelligence is made up of 7 core intelligences (Myers, 2004). It is only upon consideration of all of these intelligences that one can be judged as intelligent or not. Basically, intelligence covers a wide array of human capabilities, skills, and talents. In Susan's case, her intelligence test scores were only average even though she possessed exceptional talents in ballet dancing possibly due to the inability of the intelligence test used to measure creativity as part of an individual's intelligence. Furthermore, Susan's case brings forth the issue of the reliability and validity of intelligence testing. Susan's case demonstrates a scenario wherein an inappropriate test was used. Her low test scores may also imply that the intelligence test administered to her came up with a standardized score without giving consideration to her scores in each of the components of the test which is used to determine specific facets of her intelligence. Most of the time, the validity of intelligence tests is questioned primarily because a particular type of test may not properly measure the specific area of an individual's intelligence that is being assessed. Furthermore, a single score is often inadequate in explaining the multidimensional aspects of intelligence. In cases such as these, the reliability and validity of the intelligence test is questioned.

China Country Profile Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

China Country Profile - Term Paper Example China’s political system is very much in the hands of bureaucrats and government officials. One has to rely on them to get business done- this is due to the tradition of ‘guanxi’ (Tian n.d) which is about maintaining good relations with the Chinese. In China, it is not the law that matters but the people in power and their interpretation of the law. Due to this very practice, free trade agreements and ease of starting business in China still rests in the hands of bureaucrats and how well one maintains terms with them. Due to government interferences, tariff rates are high but recently, due to globalization, tariff rates have been lowered down in China. Strengthening the ‘reform’ policy (Tian n.d), rates of applicable taxes have also been reduced which has created a favorable environment for new business in China. Economically, China is growing at a rocketing speed and is soon coveted to be the world’s biggest economy beating the US. The average income of Chinese is increasing which signals growth in the demand of consumables and house-hold products. Due to housing subsidies introduced, real estate sector is also booming in China. Socially, China is a very business-favorable nation. Its population reduces doubts of shortage of customers and target markets. Literacy rate is also high in China which means upscale products can easily be produced and marketed. Chinese people prefer products and items carrying the first-mover advantage with them. Urban population in China emphasizes on brand while the rural population is more inclined towards price and quality of products. Due to fast paced urbanization, trend of stylish and high-priced products has picked up in China. It is also a proven fact that due to corruption in China, people tend to report lower income levels than what they actually possess (Tian n.d). Hence, the actual income levels are higher than expected in China thereby highlighting greater disposable income and spending power. China

The Political System of the United Kingdom Essay Example for Free

The Political System of the United Kingdom Essay The United Kingdom has enjoyed a relatively strong government in the entire course of its history. A major part of this could be attributed to its unique but very effective political system. There are at least five aspects that had been major contributory factors in its political stability, namely: Transparency and Accountability of Government, Consensus building on major issues, Reforms on a gradual and necessary basis, Absence of threat from coups and armed overthrow of government, and the Check and Balance of powers in its three branches. England is the land of Kings and Queens. Down the years the monarchy had played a crucial role in the political system of the nation. The reigning monarch, Queen Elizabeth II remains the constitutional and Ceremonial Head of State. She continues to exercise discretionary powers like the Royal Assent for Bills from Parliament and Royal Prerogatives like appointments of Ministers, formal consent to the declaration of war by the Prime Minister and his Cabinet, and the suggestion for the dissolution of the Parliament. The last discretionary power has never been resorted to anytime in the history of the United Kingdom. The Armed Forces swear allegiance to the Queen and that makes her their Commander-in-Chief. This is also the reason why a military-backed revolt to overthrow the government would be extremely difficult in England. In both instances, dissolution of the Parliament and unconstitutional change of government, the Crown had always been very circumspect in averting constitutional crisis. The Prime Minister is the Head of Government in the United Kingdom. He is appointed by the Monarch from the Members of Parliament of the largest majority party in the House of Commons. The current Prime Minister is Gordon Brown from the Labour Party. Coming from the largest majority of Parliament, the Prime Minister possesses the ability to form a government and push for important legislation. The Prime Minister and other senior ministers, each in charge of a government department, make up the Cabinet and together they function as the Executive Branch or Government. The Prime Minister and his Cabinet are all from Parliament but they are accountable to it. There are three Ministers in each department. They are the Head or Secretary of State, the second in rank is the Minister of State and the third in rank is the Undersecretary of State. They report to Parliament regarding their work and a committee in the House of Commons oversees their work. The Prime Minister reports to the Parliament every Wednesday for the Prime Minister’s Question Time broadcasted live in radio and television and covered by the broadsheet press. This is a democratic process of Government Transparency and Accountability. Since the Bill of Rights of 1689, sovereignty resides in the Parliament or the legislature. Like most of the world’s democracies, the United Kingdom has a bicameral legislative body. The Parliament is composed of two chambers, the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The population is proportionally divided into constituencies who elect their Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. The largest majority in the House of Commons is commissioned by the Queen to form a government. This means that a government is not voted upon by the House of Commons but it does get to exercise its vote of confidence when the legislative agenda is laid out on the Speech from the Throne. The House of Lords, on the other hand is not an elected body. It used to be hereditary among aristocratic families. Presently, the House of Lords is composed of hereditary/aristocratic members, bishops or Lords Spirituals of the Church of England, and those who have made valuable contributions to England and whose memberships were approved by the Queen but are limited to their lifetime and can not be inherited by kin down the line. Both Houses do legislative work while the House of Lords are limited in powers such as in the reviews of, proposing amendments to, or veto of Bills, except of those bills related to Monetary and Finances. The Members of Parliament have no fixed term of office. There will be a General Election when the Prime Minister calls for it, but which should not be more than five years since the last one was held. There are three major parties such as the Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrat, each with dramatically opposing political stand on issues. In the British Parliament, however, they build on consensus with regards to issues on national order and security, economy, health and foreign policies. Interestingly, the House of Lords acts as a Court of Appeals that decides on cases with finality. The Law Lords, which is a part of the House of Lords, is the one which hears and tries cases for judgment. A review is being made to study the possibility of replacing it with a Supreme Court, in accordance with the Constitutional Reform Act of 2005. The Lord Chancellor is the Head of the Judiciary in England and Wales for 1,400 years. Today it has been replaced by the Department of Constitutional Affairs. This is a case when changes in the system is initiated whenever Parliament sees a need for it. Such ensures that the change is necessary and called for, instead of a measure that is in place but without substantial value and significance at all. The United Kingdom has a political system with features that are common with some of the world’s leading democracies, and yet, it is for the large part distinctly different. Where in some countries there is a separation of powers among their branches of government in the United Kingdom it is not the case. Government Ministers are Members of Parliament. The Law Lords are members of the House of Lords. The Prime Minister is from the Parliament’s largest majority party. Despite the overlapping functions, the checks and balance of powers are in place. The Monarch commissions the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister consults with the Monarch, the Prime Minister calls a General Election for Members of Parliament and the Prime Minister and his Cabinet report to Parliament regularly. The best thing about the political system of the United Kingdom is that it had stood the test of time. It had worked for more than a thousand years, it could work for another thousand. But like an evolving parliamentary democracy, it is still a work in progress. References Darlington, R. (2007). A Short Guide to the British Political System. Retrieved October 1, 2008 from http://www. rogerdarlington. co. uk/Britishpoliticalsystem. html. NRI Online Pty. Ltd. (2008, October 1). Political System in the UK. Retrieved October 1, 2008, from http://www. nriol. com/welcome2uk/politics-in-uk. asp.